Because, as I have stated before, failed predictions don’t matter. They don’t seem to have any impact on someone’s brand. If failed predictions mattered then people like Scott Galloway, John Hussman, and Robert Kiyosaki wouldn’t have their audiences. But they do. They do despite being wrong so many times. How can this be true?
Because most people don’t care about the objective truth, they just want an answer. Any answer will do. And the more confidently you can provide that answer, the better. It reminds me of the famous reply given to the Nobel laureate Ken Arrow after he discovered that his long term weather forecasts were no better than chance:
So, while we are all enjoying a good laugh at Kiyosaki’s expense today, he will have the last laugh in the long run. Not because he will be right eventually, but because he knows that people want predictions. They crave them.
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