think behavioral_economics

https://me

dium.com/@kshortridge/behavioral-models-of-infosec-prospect-theory-c6bb49902768

https://swagitda.com/blog/posts/when-prospect-theory-meets-chaos-engineering/

https://fs.blog/2021/06/availability-bias-cognitive-distortion/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+68131+%28Farnam+Street%29

https://oecd-opsi.org/bi-units/

Vieses de julgamento com frequência são identificados com referência a um valor real. Há viés nos julgamentos preditivos se os erros vão mais numa direção do que na outra. Por exemplo, quando as pessoas fazem um prognóstico de quanto tempo levará para completar um projeto, a média de suas estimativas é em geral muito mais baixa do que o tempo que precisarão de fato. Esse viés psicológico familiar é conhecido como falácia de planejamento. (“Ruído - capítulo 13”)

base-­rate

neglect.

taxa base x teorema de bayes

Fazer um resumo visual, como esse: https://www.francismiller.com/simplify-summary/

Honest Truth About Dishonesty - data falsification

Feynman on replication problem in Psychology

Notes

Rejeição oculta - Economia - Estadão

https://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,rejeicao-oculta,70003534787

A teoria da perspectiva (prospect theory) é uma das contribuições do psicólogo israelense [Daniel Kahneman](https://tudo-sobre.estadao.com.br/Daniel Kahneman) que renderam a ele o [Prêmio Nobel em Economia](https://tudo-sobre.estadao.com.br/premio nobel de economia). Kahneman foi premiado por integrar a psicologia à ciência econômica no estudo de como formamos nossos juízos. A teoria da perspectiva trata de como reagimos a ganhos e perdas. Simplificadamente, descreve que a alegria de ganhar é menor do que a tristeza de perder, mesmo se tratando de um valor igual. Esta coluna é sobre o fim do auxílio emergencial.

Dezenas de milhões de brasileiros pobres tiveram em 2020 mais renda do que em 2019, apesar da crise. Isso decorreu de dois atributos do auxílio emergencial. Um é o valor bem maior do que o do Bolsa Família: foi de R$ 600 (R$ 1.200 para mães solo, mais comuns na demografia de Norte e [Nordeste](https://tudo-sobre.estadao.com.br/regiao Nordeste)). O segundo atributo é a amplitude da linha de pobreza que deu acesso ao benefício, mais generosa do que os limites draconianos do [Bolsa Família](https://tudo-sobre.estadao.com.br/Bolsa Família): fez com que muitos brasileiros pobres que não recebiam nenhuma transferência passassem a receber.

O auxílio emergencial acabará no dia 31 deste mês e terá transferido um montante de recursos superior a dez anos de Bolsa Família. Ele é considerado parte da explicação pela alta da popularidade do presidente [Bolsonaro](https://tudo-sobre.estadao.com.br/Jair Bolsonaro), enquanto a pandemia matava dezenas de milhares de brasileiros. Um crescimento de popularidade que aconteceu ainda com a queda do PIB e a saída do seu ministro mais popular.

Dan Ariely

Richard Thaler

Robert Shiller

Daniel Khanneman

68 Putting Your Intuition on Ice with Daniel Kahneman — In this fascinating episode of the Knowledge Project Podcast, Psychologist and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman reveals the actions we can take to overcome the biases that cripple our decision-making, damper our thinking, and limit our effectiveness. Listen and Learn from the master.

Allison Schrager

*Behavioral economics faces a reckoning44*

I suppose this intellectual turn in monetary policy is not surprising. After all, it occurred during the intellectual accent of behavioral economics. Now, to be fair, that is a broad term, and just about anyone can call themselves a behavioralist to land a plumb job in a corporation or the government under the pretense they can look at data and studies to trick/nudge people into more desirable/profitable behavior.

Turns out it doesn’t work. Many of the results don’t replicate, and you can’t trick people into doing something they don’t want to do, nudge or no nudge. This is bigger than the Ariely scandal. The field was oversold and overpromised and was probably too big.

I was never a fan. But no one can deny behavioral economics has some useful insights – and, in a more complex world with more data available, that can be valuable. But, instead of using the research to nudge, we should think harder about how to communicate risk in ways that are meaningful to people – or more meaningful than a vaccine that is “90% effective”. This is hard enough. We then need to trust people make decisions that are right for them.

Like monetary policy, behavioral economics works better when we are just clear, consistent, and straight with people.

Risky Savy - Gerd Gigerenzer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Lg7G8TMe_A

How do smart people make smart decisions? | Gerd Gigerenzer | TEDxNorrköping

Gerd Gigerenzer is Director at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy in Berlin. He is former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor, School of Law at the University of Virginia. He is also Batten Fellow at the Darden Business School, University of Virginia, and Fellow of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and the German Academy of Sciences. Awards for his work include the AAAS Prize for the best article in the behavioral sciences and the Association of American Publishers Prize for the best book in the social and behavioral sciences. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4op2WNc1e4

Risk literacy: Gerd Gigerenzer at TEDxZurich

In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes. We learn to read and write but not how to deal with uncertainty: we are risk illiterates. Why do we fear what’s unlikely to kill us? Is it true that people are basically hopeless when it comes to managing health and wealth? Some experts have concluded that Homo Sapiens (“man the wise”) is a misnomer, and that John and Jane Q. Public need continuous guidance, as a child needs a parent. Against this pessimistic view, Gerd Gigerenzer argues that everyone can learn to deal with risk and uncertainty, and that experts can be part of the problem rather than the solution. A democracy needs risk-savvy citizens who cannot be easily frightened into surrendering their money, their welfare, and their liberty. We should begin to teach risk literacy to everyone. Gerd Gigerenzer is director at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy in Berlin. Previous positions he held include Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor, School of Law at the University of Virginia. He is also a member of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and the German Academy of Sciences, and Batten Fellow at the Darden Business School, University of Virginia. He received honorary doctorates from the University of Basel and the Open University of the Netherlands. Awards for his work include the AAAS Prize for the best article in the behavioral sciences, the Association of American Publishers Prize for the best book in the social and behavioral sciences, the German Psychology Award, and the Communicator Award of the German Research Foundation. In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)

Referenced in